In the last 20 matches or so I've had at least 4 opening hands with 0 level 4 or lower monsters. I used to get a guaranteed 2. Something broke during the last season. Anyone else having the same problem? I'm using Syrus - and the animation is triggering and I still end up with zero.
It is not guaranteed, it is completely RNG with improved chance to get at least 1 lv 4 or lower. Sometimes it still could fail.
I also recently have the same experience as you, with my magnets deck.
I think after desperado released, Konami started working on their RNG algorithm to fairly randomize the coin flips (*pls nerf Satorius skill).
Which could also affect the skill that use RNG.
This is why I feel like this skill has become broken (or maybe it was nerfed). I'll need to do more runs but the current results don't look like they're significantly better than not using the skill. I've played hundreds of matches with this skill (inzektors, krawlers) prior to this season and don't recall ever opening with zero. Granted none of those decks were KOG worty but I never once felt the skill was not working properly. Unfortunately memory is the only evidence i have of this (and it's not great evidence). If anyone else has used this skill extensively it would be nice to know their experience.
Compare this to the Heavy Starter Skill which also uses the same language of improved chanced. If you only have 3 different named level 5+ monsters, the chances of opening with 0 lvl 5+ monsters is almost 50%. I've used that skill a lot with just this scenario (exactly 3) and I certaintly don't recall ever opening without a level 5+. That would be an appreciable increase in chances (even if technically it wasn't guaranteed and my memory sucks).
Preliminary thoughts are: why would I use this skill when I can only reduce the risk of opening no level 4 by 5% when I could just as easily add 1 more level 4 card to the deck. I would not need different named level 4 or lower monsters and use a better skill?
To start testing the distribution I ran 81 duels in ranked mode (Platinum 4+) and recorded how many level 4s I opened up with (0,1,2+). I got 9%, 40% and 51% respectively. From a purely theoretical point of view - If i didn't have the skill the odds would be 15%, 40% and 45% (7 level 4- cards in a 20 card deck). I know this sample size isn't very large, but it certainly doesn't feel like it's improving the chances. If I tweak this to 8 level 4 cards in a 20 card deck without the skill the odds would become 10%, 35%, 55% respectively.
I'm very aware that it says improved chances. As a regular user of the skill, I'm saying I've noticed an appreciable change in the past season from an outcomes based point of view (not armchair wisdom that any primary school level of reading can accomplish)
its not 100%, it only improves the chances. READ AGAIN.